GMAT - Graduate Management Admission Test

The following appeared as part of an article in a trade magazine for breweries. �Magic Hat Brewery recently released the results of a survey of visitors to its tasting room last year. Magic Hat reports that the majority of visitors asked to taste its low-calorie beers. To boost sales, other small breweries should brew low-calorie beers as well.� Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

In this article small breweries are urged to brew low-calorie beers in order to boost sales. In support of this recommendation the author cites a survey conducted at Magic Hat Brewery revealing that a majority of visitors to its tasting room asked to taste its lowcalorie beers. Presumably, the author�s line of reasoning is that since the survey conducted at Magic Hat shows a high level of interest in low-calorie beers, other breweries would be wise to brew low-calorie beers as well. The author�s argument is problematic for several reasons.

To begin with, the validity of the survey conducted at Magic Hat Brewery is doubtful. Lacking information about the number of visitors surveyed and the number of respondents, it is impossible to assess the results. For example, if 100 visitors were surveyed but only 20 responded, the majority who asked to taste low-calorie beers could be as few as 11 of the 100 visitors. Obviously, such result would provide little evidence for the author�s recommendation. Because the author offers no evidence that would rule out interpretations such as this, the survey results as stated are insufficient to support the recommendation.

Next, even if the results of the survey accurately reflect a high level of interest in low-calorie beers among Magic Hat�s visitors, this may not be true for other breweries. While the survey is suggestive of a widespread interest in low-calorie beers, it is insufficient to establish this general claim because there is no reason to believe that Magic Hat Brewery is representative of other small breweries.

For example, if Magic Hat specialized in low-calorie beers, the results of the survey would be highly questionable when applied to small breweries in general. Once again, because the author offers no evidence that would rule out interpretations such as this, the survey results as stated are insufficient to support the recommendation.

Finally, since the author�s recommendation is aimed at boosting breweries� sales, it must be shown that visitor interest in tasting lowcalorie beers resulted in sales of these beers. No evidence is offered in the argument to support this crucial connection. Thus the author�s recommendation cannot be taken seriously.

In conclusion, the survey conducted at Magic Hat Brewery offers little support for the author�s recommendation. To strengthen the conclusion the author would have to provide detailed information about the survey that demonstrates its validity. Moreover, it would be necessary to show that Magic Hat Brewery was representative of other small breweries and that visitor interest in tasting low-calorie beers resulted in sales of these beers.