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30. The following appeared in a newspaper story giving advice
about investments.
�As overall life expectancy continues to
rise, the population of our country is growing
increasingly older. For example, over twenty percent of the residents of one
of our more populated regions are now at least 65 years old, and occupancy
rates at resort hotels in that
region declined significantly during the past six months. Because
of these two related trends, a prudent investor would be well advised to sell
interest in hotels and invest in hospitals and nursing homes instead.�
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
In this argument prudent investors are
advised to stop investing in hotels and invest instead in hospitals and nursing
homes. The author cites two related trends�an
aging population and a decline in hotel occupancy�as grounds for this advice.
To illustrate these trends, the author
refers to another region of the country, where 20 percent of the population is
over 65 years old and where occupancy rates in
resort hotels have declined significantly during the past six months. This
argument is unconvincing in a couple of important respects.
In the first
place, the author provides no evidence to support the claim that the population
as a whole is aging and that the hotel occupancy
rate in general is declining. The example cited, while suggestive of these
trends, is insufficient to warrant their truth because there
is no reason to believe that data drawn from this unnamed
region is representative of the entire
country. For example, if the region from
which the data was gathered was Florida, it would clearly be unrepresentative.
The reason for this is obvious. Florida is populated
by a disproportionate number
of retired people over 65 years old and is a very popular vacation destination
during the winter months. Moreover, resort
hotel occupancy in Florida typically declines significantly during the summer
months.
In the second place, the author has provided
no evidence to support the claim that the decline in hotel occupancy is related
to the aging of the population. The author
appears to believe that the decrease in occupancy rates at resort hotels is
somehow caused by the increase in the
number of people over age 65. However, the example cited by the author
establishes only that these two trends are correlated;
it does not establish that the decline in hotel occupancy is due to an increase
in the number of people over the age of 65.
In conclusion, the author�s investment
advice is not based on sound
reasoning. To strengthen the conclusion,
the author must show that the trends were
not restricted to a particular region of the country. The author must also show
that the cause of the decline in hotel occupancy
is the increase in the number of people over 65.
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